Ratings: Why They're Irrelevant + Why The Leftovers Will NEVER Be Canceled

Written by: Blake Larsen

People are worried that The Leftovers is going to be canceled. Of course, the first thing they point to is the ratings! "Oh my god the ratings have gone down 60%! It can't stay on air - this is a disaster!" Naturally, panic sets in, one tweet from some random gabrone is said about cancellation and everyone starts losing their minds.  Listen people, ratings are dumb as hell.  They're irrelevant and guess what, The Leftovers will NEVER be canceled.  Here are the reasons why....




Let me first back this train up a little bit and explain the panic.  People see this ratings chart for each individual episode of The Leftovers and they freak the hell out:

People see that big red -60.19% number at the bottom and they immediately jump to the ugliest conclusion.  How could HBO keep a show on that had 636,000 viewers on the last episode? That's a precipitous drop! Especially when you start comparing it to the likes of Game Of Thrones and so on? People worry that there isn't enough interest.

People are so god damn short sighted.

Here's why we all need to calm the hell down:

Ratings Are Obsolete:  The Nielsen system of ratings is quickly becoming irrelevant. With the advent of Amazon Prime, Hulu, HBOGo, HBONow, and all the different ways to digitally consume content, getting the real time numbers from live viewing of shows is going the way of the Dodo.  Hell, even the DVR is helping contribute to the downfall of Nielsen.  

While people may be watching a show on their cable box, they may not be watching it during the seven days that Nielsen uses to measure stats from the day the episode airs.  (click here for a more in depth explanation on Nielsen and how they accumulate stats.)

Here's a prime example of how Nielsen ratings are obsolete - I didn't watch either season of True Detective live.  Nor did I watch any of The Americans live.  I waited until the whole season aired and I binged them.  For each season. So if Nielsen was watching my viewing habits, my viewings would not have been accounted in either True Detective's, or The Americans' ratings.  And I'm a MEGA fan of both.

We now live in a binge style culture for television.  Shows like Felicity, Gilmore Girls, Arrested Development, and hell, even Dawson's Creek have found new life on platforms such as Netflix.  People can watch the show one after the other and never have to worry about waiting or even commercials for that matter. As such, viewers have started to treat current shows in the same manner.  Why not just DVR it, wait til every episode comes out and not only do you not have to wait each week, but you can skip all the commercials at the same time.   

But, I know there are some out there that are pulling their hair out as they read this because Nielsen still tracks numbers, and it's obvious that networks still use the numbers to gauge interest in a show. They still have to track popularity, right?

Fine, let's go down that rabbit hole for a brief moment and let me explain why (especially in the case of The Leftovers) why numbers maybe black and white, but  they don't always tell the WHOLE truth.

Numbers Are Deceiving - True, that big red 60% number in decline of viewership looks huge.  In fact, it IS kinda huge. It's definitely not a great number to be in the red.

BUT, here's what the numbers AREN'T telling you - historically, a series pilot premiere generally  has big viewer numbers and then it usually dwindles down as the season progresses.  

How many times have you watched a pilot and decided, "ah that show sucks," or, "wow, I kinda like that" and return the following week? The numbers are artificially inflated.  Not only is the show finding it's footing artistically - but it's also finding it's viewership. It's no different for The Leftovers.

 Last year, The Leftovers premiered to 1.8 MILLION people in the summer at the 10pm slot which followed the final season of the highly rated True Blood. HBO placed The Leftovers after True Blood because they wanted to utilize a commonly used tactic called a "lead in." 

They were hoping to capture all the people who watched True Blood and keep them in their seats while The Leftovers started.  And, son of a bitch, it worked. 1.8 million people (for HBO) is pretty damn good.

But the numbers dwindled like they normally do after a season 1 premiere because the show was finding it's smaller and ardently committed viewership.

So getting back to that chart at the top, when you see the premiere of season 2 opening to only 713,000 people and the big red -59.65% next to it, I need you to understand that it's a loaded number. 

Essentially, it's like dealing with monopoly money.  

It's fake. 

The numbers are loaded because they are comparing the season 2 premiere to the artificially inflated number of the season 1 premiere.  Don't believe me? Take a look at this:

The small print says that not only are they comparing the premieres, but they are also comparing each current episode to it's counterpart of last year as well. So let's take a look at that chart again - but with the knowledge that this is all compared to last year and the inflated numbers:

I think it's fair to say the numbers after the premiere, and for year two, are more indicative of the actual viewership of the show.  

So, let's discount the loaded numbers from the season 1 premiere and only compare episodes 2-6, shall we?  By getting an "apples-to-apples" comparison of seasons 1 and 2, you end up with a gross GAIN of 7.16% in actual viewership.  Wait, what? 

Since we established that the actual viewership of the show can be found after the premiere of season 1, and that the percentage differences are between season 1 and season 2 - you will find that after you add up the percentages without the premiere, the ratings of actual viewership have gone UP 7.16%.  That's right - add up all the percentage numbers right now.  It's a complete gross gain for season 2.

Tell me, in what world would a show be canceled after having a 7.16% average gain in viewership? NONE.  Most shows would DIE for that kind of uptick in ratings.

And guess what the numbers aren't telling you either - season 1 of The Leftovers premiered in the SUMMER against zero competition in 2014.  Yet, season 2 premiered in the fall and has had to compete with the likes of MLB's playoffs and World Series, oh and let's not forget that it airs at the SAME EXACT time slot as the most popular show on the PLANET in The Walking Dead.  Here's the kicker, it STILL has gained viewers despite those odds.

So not only are the numbers loaded, and it's monopoly money, but The Leftovers has been aired in two COMPLETELY different time slots, and seasons.  For someone to say the show will be canceled because of the drop in ratings -  it's proof of that person being acutely ignorant of the situation.

But, how can a show like The Leftovers, with a viewership of 700,000 compare and/or compete with a ratings JUGGERNAUT like The Walking Dead who regularly averages upwards of 14 MILLION viewers?  

Well, here's why:

HBO DOESN'T CARE ABOUT NUMBERS - First off, HBO, SHOWTIME, and STARZ, will never have numbers like broadcast stations.  They are premium networks that require subscriptions and not everyone can afford that content.  HBO's highest rated show ever (Game Of Thrones) only averages about 8 million viewers.  So, you can't compare the networks various numbers.  Click here to look at the surprising low ratings for all HBO content.

But what matters most here is that HBO cares about quality content.  They have a brand to maintain, and they have a reputation to keep.  

But here's the thing, the brand makes the reputation, and the reputation feeds the brand.  It even says so on the picture at the top of this post, "It's not TV. It's HBO."  HBO is not a regular network.  They can do whatever the hell they want.  

Trust me, this is a GOOD thing.

The only way they are going to keep making quality television, (and let's be honest, HBO has the MOST quality programs on the market right now) is if they keep giving artists the opportunity to do the job they actually WANT to do.  

Guys like David Chase, Nic Pizzolato, Terrence Winter, Bruno Heller, David Milch, David Simon, and, yes, even Damon Lindelof, all go to HBO to tell great stories because they'll usually be given the freedom to tell it.  HBO can let a showrunner tell a story over time because they have the ultimate flexibilty: self-sustainability.

Unlike broadcast networks such as NBC, ABC, CBS, and even FX or AMC,  HBO isn't beholden to advertisers. 

HBO execs don't have to walk into an advertisers office and say, "people love our shows - look at the ratings!  Will you please keep advertising with us so we can make money?" (Side note: This is why you keep seeing the same shows be recycled on the broadcast networks - they can't take chances because they are subject to the whimsy of a fickle public.  Look what happened to poor Hannibal.)  

Ultimately, HBO doesn't care about numbers because it gets the money from viewer subscriptions.  

How does HBO get subscriptions? Jeez, how does any premium cable network get subscriptions now? Quality original programming.  HBO knows it. Hell, even Netflix knows it - that's why they've created their own shows like House of Cards and Bloodline etc. 

Quality original content is what sucks people in.

And how do you get quality original content? You get big names to run your show,  or to act in your shows.  

Big names like Damon freakin' Lindelof. 

Love him or hate him, Lindelof is a star.  He is probably the most visible and recognizable showrunner this side of Chris Carter.  Regardless of how many people watch The Leftovers (more on this in a minute) it's a huge political win, and an even bigger ego boost for both Lindelof AND HBO to be on the same team.  The Lindelof brand is a hot button topic, and is also synonymous with artistic value.  He is prestige television.  And, believe me, the only thing HBO cares about is prestige television.  Again, I cannot reiterate this enough, this is a good thing.

This is why HBO will never cancel The Leftovers.  

Not only does HBO not care about numbers, but they want to work with good show runners to keep them coming back.  In the end, HBO will let them tell the stories they need to tell.  In other words, the only way The Leftovers leaves the airwaves is if Lindelof decides it needs to leave the airwaves.

But let's say for the sake of argument HBO did care about the numbers.  Despite the relatively small viewership of The Leftovers, it's actually the highest rated show that HBO is actively running during this season.  See the numbers from tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com here:

VIEWERS

Show	Net	L+3 Viewers (000s)
THE WALKING DEAD	AMC	17,113
AHS: HOTEL	FX	5,378
MAJOR CRIMES [P]	TNT	3,952
THE LIBRARIANS	TNT	2,941
FARGO	FX	2,791
IF LOVING YOU IS WRONG	OWN	2,704
BEING MARY JANE	BET	2,248
HOMELAND	SHOW	2,184
THE BASTARD EXECUTIONER	FX	2,142
AGENT X [P]	TNT	1,869
AGENT X (10 p.m.)	TNT	1,541
DOCTOR WHO	BBCA	1,455
THE AFFAIR	SHOW	1,442
Z NATION	SYFY	1,405
HAVEN	SYFY	1,254
AWKWARD [F]	MTV	1,247
LEGENDS [P]	TNT	1,206
THE LEFTOVERS	HBO	1,099
THE LEAGUE	FXX	981
DRUNK HISTORY	CMDY	901
FINDING CARTER	MTV	881
SATISFACTION	USA	857
FAKING IT [F]	MTV	704
ASH VS. EVIL DEAD	STZ	566
YOU’RE THE WORST	FXX	494
THE LAST KINGDOM	BBCA	481
MANHATTAN	WGNA	444
THE KNICK	MAX	424
GETTING ON [P]	HBO	389
DA VINCI’S DEMONS	STZ	289
INSTANT MOM (8 p.m.)	TVL	286
FLESH AND BONE [P]	STZ	284
INSTANT MOM (8:30 p.m.)	TVL	268
BENDERS	IFC	158
THE RETURNED	SUN	154
GIGI DOES IT	IFC	81

Source: The Nielsen Company.

Just from a Macro view of the network alone - HBO will NOT cancel it's most popular show in the fall season.  Which, is probably WHY they moved it to the fall to begin with!

And here is another reason to consider too: HBO has lost some MAJOR players as of late - True Blood: gone. The Newsroom: gone. Game Of Thrones: ending in two seasons. Eastbound and Down: gone. True Detective: TBD.  

They need quality programming to keep the people coming back.  So it almost becomes a numbers game of how many shows they are actually producing.

Listen people, relax - The Leftovers isn't going anywhere.  Unless Damon Lindelof exits the show, or unless he says it's over.  And if he doesn't feel there any more story to tell, or if he leaves the show, I don't want to watch it anyway.  

Do you want more chat about The Leftovers? Get your fix by listening to The Living Reminders Podcast with detailed show discussion and amazing interviews with cast, crew, writers and directors of The Leftovers on HBO.

Do you believe The Leftovers will be canceled?